Tories at 33%, Grits at 32%; Few Canadians Want to Vote in 2009
[TORONTO – Sept. 3, 2009] – In the first poll conducted after Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff declared that his party will no longer support the Conservative minority government, it is clear that few Canadians want to vote in a new federal election before the end of this year.
The Canadian Political Pulse, conducted by Angus Reid Strategies in partnership with the Toronto Star, has found that 57 per cent of respondents are against the opposition parties toppling the Conservative government to trigger an election. Conversely, 32 per cent would support this move.
The online survey of a representative national sample shows that 37 per cent of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party in the last election oppose the notion of toppling the government. The same is true for 41 per cent of New Democratic Party (NDP) voters, 33 per cent of Bloc Québécois voters, and 49 per cent of Green Party voters.
Despite the low support for holding an early election, the poll also found that 42 per cent of Canadians think it is time for a change in the federal government, meaning that a new party should be elected into power. Conversely, 34 per cent of Canadians think the Conservatives should stay in office.
Voting Intention
If an election were held today, the Tories (33%) and the Liberals (32%) would be in a statistical tie. The NDP is in third place with 19 per cent, followed by the Bloc with nine per cent, and the Greens with seven per cent.
Support for the Conservatives is down one point since late August, while the Grits have improved by two points.
The Conservatives are leading the Liberals by at least 10 points in BC (34% to 24%), Alberta (49% to 22%), and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (51% to 12%). In BC, however, the Tories are practically tied with the NDP (33%).
The Liberals are up in Ontario by a small margin (40% compared to 37% for the Tories), and lead the NDP and the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada (39% Lib., 29% NDP and 28% Con.). In Quebec, the Liberals are second to the Bloc (35% BQ, 31% Libs) with the Tories in third place (18%).
Support for the Green Party is notably high in Alberta (12%) and BC (9%).
The numbers suggest that neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals would be able to win a majority government if an election took place today.
Handling the Economy
Almost half of Canadians (47%) are satisfied with the way the federal government has handled the ongoing economic crisis, while 45 per cent are unhappy with their actions.
The Canadian economy grew for the first time in 11 months in June, marking the end of the recession.
However, only 19 per cent of Canadians think the country is really out of the economic recession, whereas 56 per cent disagree.
A small proportion of Canadians (31%) think Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s administration deserves credit for the official end of the recession; 61 per cent say it does not deserve the credit.
CONTACT:
Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs, 514-409-0462, jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)