Tight Race Continues, as Ignatieff Fails to Close Gap on Economy

[TORONTO – Jun. 24, 2009] – With Canadians seemingly assured that no election will take place over the summer, the main political parties are essentially tied, but both emerge from the recent stand-off with explicit weaknesses, a new Toronto Star / Angus Reid poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 32 per cent of decided voters (+1) would cast a ballot for the governing Conservatives, while 31 per cent (-2) would support the opposition Liberals. The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 18 per cent (+1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent (+2), and the Green Party with seven per cent (=).

The Tories are barely ahead of the Grits in Ontario (37% to 35%), and are still leading in Alberta. The Liberals are still the main federalist party in Quebec, but the sovereignist Bloc now has a 13-point lead (42% to 29%). British Columbia has emerged as a key battleground, with the Conservatives now holding a three-point edge over the Liberals (36% to 33%).

The past month was not particularly kind to any of the five federal party leaders. The momentum score for Prime Minister and Conservative leader Stephen Harper is by far the worst at -28 (11% of respondents say their opinion of Harper improved in the past months, 39% say it worsened). NDP leader Jack Layton (-17) and Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe (-15 in Quebec) also posted negative numbers, along with Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff (-10) and Green leader Elizabeth May (also -10).

A third of respondents (34%) believe Harper is best suited to deal with the economy, followed by Ignatieff with 20 per cent, and Layton with 10 per cent. The bulk of support for Harper's economic management comes from respondents in the West.

Respondents were also asked whether they would be better off or worse off under a federal government headed by Harper, Ignatieff or Layton. Once again, the momentum was negative for the three party leaders (-12 for Harper, -15 for Ignatieff, -23 for Layton).

Two-in-five Canadians (40%) believe the Conservative government has done a poor job, and that a new party should be elected into power, while five per cent criticize the Tories, but believe they should still be re-elected. In addition, 11 per cent of respondents commend the Tories but call for a change in Ottawa, while one-in-four (26%) unreservedly believe that the Tories should be re-elected.

Qualities and Characteristics

In the poll, respondents were provided with nine qualities and characteristics usually associated with politicians, and asked to state whether each of them applied to Canada’s two main federal party leaders.

Harper remains ahead of Ignatieff on being a strong and decisive leader (43% to 28%), having a vision for Canada's future (42% to 35%), managing the economy effectively (32% to 22%), and being honest and trustworthy (28% to 25%). Ignatieff leads on caring about the environment (28% to 21%). The two leaders are virtually tied on inspiring confidence, understanding the problems of Canadians, understanding complex issues, and generally agreeing with Canadians on issues they care about.

Harper managed to expand on his April numbers on the leadership and vision questions, while Ignatieff underwent a marked decline on inspiring confidence.

Analysis

While the election was averted, the stalemate between the two main parties persists. The negative momentum score for all five leaders suggests that nobody connected with the public during the standoff.

For the governing Tories, the economy remains a good file. The prime minister is clearly ahead of his opponents as an economic manager, and Canadians do not automatically assume they would be better off under a Liberal administration at this point. However, the party has lost its stranglehold on British Columbia and Harper keeps the worst momentum score of all leaders. Also, the level of strong support for the Conservatives (26%) is clearly lower than the percentage who express disappointment and call for change (40%).

For the opposition Grits, the situation is also murky. While support in BC is reaching one of the highest points in years, the party has dropped back in Quebec and Ontario. Ignatieff remains unable to wrestle the economic manager mantle from Harper, and continues to trail on this question.

CONTACT:
Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs, 604-647-3570, mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)