Liberals and Conservatives in Dead Heat as Summer Rolls On
[TORONTO – Jul. 30, 2009] – The Canadian Political Pulse, conducted by Angus Reid Strategies in partnership with the Toronto Star, shows the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical tie, repeating the pattern of tightening of the numbers seen in each of the last two summers.
In the online survey of a representative national sample, 34 per cent of decided voters (+4) would vote for the opposition Liberal Party, while 33 per cent (=) support the governing Conservative Party.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 16 per cent (-2), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent (-1), and the Green Party with seven per cent (+1).
The growth in Liberal support appears to come in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The Grits lead the Tories in Ontario (41% to 35%), are ahead of all rivals in Atlantic Canada (37%) and have closed to within four points of the Bloc in Quebec (34%).
The Tories maintain their dominance in Alberta (66%), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (52%), and British Columbia (35%).
Momentum
Despite the increase in Grit support, the momentum numbers for Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff continue to worsen. His momentum score of -18 is five points worse than it was two weeks ago (13% say their opinion of Ignatieff has improved in the last month, while 31% say it has gotten worse).
Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s momentum score remained essentially unchanged from the last poll at -28 (one point worse from -27). That the momentum scores of the two leaders are so close represents a huge shift in political perceptions from as recently as February, when Ignatieff had a positive score of +7 compared to Harper’s -35.
New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jack Layton stands at -15 (an improvement of two points from two weeks ago).
Time for a change
Nearly half of Canadians (49%) think that the Conservative government has done a poor job and a new party should be elected into power, compared to only slightly more than a quarter (27%) who think that the Conservatives have done a good job and should be re-elected.
Most interesting are the 15 per cent of Canadians who think that while the Conservatives have done a good job, a new party should be elected into power. People in this group are more likely to be women, reside in British Columbia and Quebec, have voted Liberal in the last federal election, and live in households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year.
There are also one-in-ten Canadians (10%) who feel that even though the Conservatives have done poor job they should be re-elected. These respondents are more likely to be Albertans and male.
To win the next election, the Liberals simply must gain a greater share of the vote of people who want a new government and think the Conservatives have done a poor job, while the Tories need to persuade those people who think they have done a good job, that they deserve re-election.
The Economy and Politics
The economy continues to dominate as the most important issue facing Canada (35%) as it has for the last 11 months, and the way the political class is reacting to this issue continues to affect perceptions. Slightly more people are dissatisfied with the reaction of the federal government to the economic crisis (48%) than are satisfied (44%). A significant amount of this satisfaction cuts across party lines with 31 per cent of Liberal voters and 26 per cent of NDP voters expressing satisfaction with the government’s reaction, and nearly one-in-five Conservative voters (18%) registering dissatisfaction.
Since the beginning of July, perceptions of economic trust towards the nation’s leaders have not moved significantly. Two-in-five Canadians (41%, unchanged) trust Harper to do the right thing to help the economy recover, while half (50%, up two points) distrust him. Ignatieff saw an increase in trust from 32 per cent to 36 per cent, while distrust in him to do the right thing for stands at 52 per cent, up one point.
Net trust in Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, decreased in a period where he gained attention after announcing the end of the recession. Nearly half of Canadians (46%, up two points) trust him, while three-in-ten (30%, up three points) distrust him.
CONTACT:
Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs, 514-409-0462, jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)