Conservatives Extend Lead Over Liberals to Ten Points

[TORONTO – Oct. 2, 2009] – A fall federal election would provide virtually the same results of the 2008 ballot, with the governing Conservatives enjoying a ten-point advantage over the opposition Liberals, according to the Canadian Political Pulse, conducted by Angus Reid Strategies in partnership with the Toronto Star.

Voting Intention

The online survey of a representative national sample shows that 37 per cent of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding. The Liberals are a distant second at 27 per cent, down two points in one week.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 17 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent, and the Green Party with six per cent.

These results virtually mirror the outcome of the October 2008 election, with every one of Canada’s main federal parties sitting about one percentage point away from their totals in the last federal ballot.

Regional Breakdowns

The Conservatives have hit the 50 per cent mark in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and continue to dominate in their traditional stronghold of Alberta (61%).

In Ontario, which saw a close race earlier this year in the first weeks of Michael Ignatieff’s tenure as Liberal leader, the Tories now hold a 14-point edge over the Grits (44% to 30%).

British Columbia, where the Liberals made some gains in the spring, now finds the NDP in second place with 28 per cent, with the Grits five points behind (23%). The Conservatives (42%) remain in first place.

In Quebec, support for the sovereignist Bloc is up from the last election (41%), but the Liberals have fallen below the 30 per cent threshold (27%). The Tories are third (14%), followed by the NDP (13%).

Parliament

Canadians are divided in their assessment of Parliament, with 46 per cent thinking it is working well (6% very well, 40% moderately well) while 43 per cent believe it is working poorly (23% moderately poorly, 20% very poorly). A majority of respondents in British Columbia (51%) and Alberta (54%) hold negative views.

Nonetheless, three-in-five Canadians (63%) believe an election will make no difference to how well Parliament works, a view shared by a majority of respondents in every Canadian province. Just 12 per cent believe Parliament will work better after an election, while one-in-twenty (5%) think it will work worse.

CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Vice President, Public Affairs, 416-712-5498, jodi.shanoff@angus-reid.com

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)