Conservative Party Takes Lead as Ignatieff Loses Points on Economy

[TORONTO – Jul. 9, 2009] – With the start of summer the Conservative Party has moved ahead of the Liberal Party for the first time since the early spring, a new Angus Reid Strategies poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,003 Canadian adults shows that, if a federal election were held tomorrow, 36 per cent of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives (+4) and 30 per cent would support the Liberals (-1).

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 16 per cent (-2), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent (-1), and the Green Party with seven per cent (=).

These numbers nearly perfectly mirror the results of the January 2006 election which gave the Conservatives their first minority government.

Part of the Conservative lead seems to come from a decline in the economic credibility of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. About one-third of Canadians (32%) say their either completely or moderately trust Ignatieff to do the right thing to help the economy recover, a drop of seven points since April. Also, the proportion of people who “completely distrust” Ignatieff to do the right thing to help the economy has risen from 19 per cent in April to 27 per cent this month.

The performance of Prime Minister Stephen Harper on economic issues is essentially unchanged since April. Harper is completely or moderately trusted by 41 per cent of respondents (no change) and completely or moderately distrusted by 48 per cent (down four points).

It is interesting to contrast the scores of the political leaders to those of the non-partisan Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney. In terms of trust, Carney is not markedly higher than the politicians (44%), but only 27 per cent distrust him, much lower than either Harper of Ignatieff.

The Stimulus

While the overwhelming majority of Canadians (76%) believe that the current economic situation is mostly a consequence of the global financial crisis, the percentage of respondents who think that it was caused by the current federal government has grown to 12 per cent (up four points since April). Quebecers (17%) and people in households making less than $50,000 a year (16%) are the most likely to blame the Harper government for Canada’s current economic situation.

There is a growing consensus that the stimulus spending of all levels of government will help Canada’s economy to recover gradually. More than half of Canadians (57%) think the spending will lead to a slow recovery, up ten points since April. In contrast the number of people who think it will help the economy recover quickly has dropped from 12 per cent to just one-in-twenty (5%).

Canadians believe, nearly unanimously, that a significant portion of the stimulus spending will be wasted. Only two per cent say that nearly all of it will be spent wisely, compared to 45 per cent who think that only the greater part will be spent wisely and the same proportion (45%) who believe that the greater part will be wasted. Seven per cent think that nearly all of it will be wasted, a sentiment most common in British Columbia and Alberta (both at 11%) and amongst respondents under the age of 35 (11%).

There is still a huge disconnect between the stimulus spending and the lives of individual Canadians. More than two-thirds of respondents (68%) say that it will have no effect on their personal financial situation, and half (50%) think it will not make a difference to their employer’s financial situation.

However, when the federal government’s stimulus package is considered on a “government to government” basis only a quarter of people (24%) believe that it will make no difference to their province’s financial situation. It is interesting to note that this scepticism is highest in Alberta and Quebec (28%) and lowest in Ontario and British Columbia (both at 19%).

Demographics

Canada’s political landscape is really a series of regional battles between different players. In the western provinces, the Conservatives are ahead (41% in BC, 65% in Alberta and 56% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba), with the Liberals in a respectable second place in BC, but a distant third behind the NDP in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Ontario remains a tight contest between the Conservatives (37%) and the Liberals (34%), while in Quebec the Bloc has a double-digit lead over the Liberals (38% to 27%). Atlantic Canada sees the Liberals with a comfortable advantage over the governing Tories (45% to 30%).

The two main parties both have significant gender gaps. Amongst men, the Tories have a massive 15-point lead, but the Grits hold a five-point edge amongst women. Both the Conservatives and Liberals do better as voters get older—a striking contrast to the NDP and Bloc, whose votes skew strongly under 35.

While the level of trust in Harper is similar to the likelihood to support the Conservatives across the country, there are two notable exceptions: Ontario (47%) and Quebec (24%). In these provinces, the levels of trust significantly exceed Conservative ballot support. More people trust than distrust Harper to do the right thing of the economy in Ontario, something not achieved in more “conservative” British Columbia.

CONTACT:
Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs, 514-409-0462, jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)