Angus Reid Poll: Tory Fortunes Hinge on Voter Turnout as Alberta Prepares for Legislative Ballot
[CALGARY – Feb. 29, 2008] - As the Alberta election campaign winds to a close, a new Angus Reid Strategies poll shows a contest that could tighten significantly, especially depending on turnout rates.
In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, Premier Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservative Party are leading Kevin Taft's Liberals by 15 percentage points (43% to 28%).
The same poll, however, shows that among Albertans who claim they are “absolutely certain” to vote on Monday, the gap between the PC’s and Liberals drops to nine percentage points (39% to 30%). In many senses, the fate of Premier Stelmach and his party will rest on turnout levels on Election Day.
This new poll confirms a trend evident in an earlier Angus Reid survey carried out midway through the provincial legislative campaign, which showed that the disapproval rating for Stelmach hovers around the 50 per cent mark, that only three-in-ten (30%) Alberta residents feel that he would make the best premier, and that a majority (52%) of Albertans feel that it is time for a change in government in the province. In addition, Stelmach is the only one of the five party leaders to register a negative momentum score (-13) over the past two weeks.
Faced with this negative voter mood and continuing concerns in the province about health care, the environment and public services, Alberta’s Progressive Conservatives are facing the most significant electoral cloud they’ve had to face since 1993.
If there is any area of encouragement for the Stelmach government, it is the relatively low rating for Liberal leader Kevin Taft. Only 25 per cent of respondents approve of his performance, and 28 per cent believe he would make the best premier for Alberta.
In the decided voter category, the New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 13 per cent, followed by the Wildrose Alliance Party with 10 per cent, and the Green Party with seven per cent. Among those absolutely certain to vote on Monday, the only change for the three minor parties is a one-point gain for the Greens.
Taft maintains roughly the same momentum score (+5) he posted in the previous survey (23% of respondents say their opinion of the Liberal leader has improved, while 18% say it has worsened). The NDP's Brian Mason (+5), the Green Party's George Read (+1) and Paul Hinman of the Wildrose Alliance Party (+7) all did better than Stelmach in connecting with the public over the past fortnight.
Just days before the provincial election, roughly one-in-five respondents (21%) remain undecided. More than half of PC (57%), Liberal (57%) and Green (61%) voters say their choice in this election is final. Conversely, 62 per cent of NDP voters and 57 per cent of Wildrose Alliance voters say they could change their minds before Election Day.
Related Releases:
02.21.08
Angus Reid Poll: PC (42%) Leads Liberals (31%) in Alberta, But Stelmach Posts Negative Momentum
http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=news&newsid=170