Angus Reid Poll: Conservatives Closer to Majority Government as NDP Ties Liberals
[CALGARY - Sept. 27, 2008] - The governing Conservative Party stands a good chance of forming a majority administration next month, as the Liberal Party is tied with the New Democratic Party (NDP) for the first time in the campaign, a new Toronto Star / Angus Reid poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,508 adults, 40 per cent of decided voters would back the Tories in the Oct. 14 federal ballot, a two-point increase in a week and four points above the party's share of the vote in the 2006 electoral process (36.3%).
The Grits and the NDP are even at 21 per cent, with the Liberals now nine points below their 2006 total (30.2%) and the New Democrats surpassing their last showing in a federal ballot (17.5%). The Bloc Québécois is once again in fourth place with 10 per cent, while the Greens fell to seven per cent.
As has been the case for the first three weeks of the campaign, the Tories remain dominant in Alberta (67%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (52%). In Ontario, the Conservatives have amassed a 12-point lead over the Liberals (39% to 27%), with the NDP a close third (25%).
The Bloc has regained a substantial advantage in Quebec (39%), with the Tories in second place (27%). Atlantic Canada gives the Liberals with a slight edge over the Conservatives. In British Columbia, the Tories are leading the NDP (43% to 24%), with the Liberals (18%) and Greens (13%) far behind. The Greens did not surpass the 10-point threshold in any other province.
Retention Rates
The survey shows the Conservatives holding on to 85 per cent of Canadians who supported them in the 2006 election. The retention rate for the Bloc is equally high at 82 per cent, while the NDP stands at 76 per cent. Just 59 per cent of decided voters who backed the Liberals in the last House of Commons ballot are sticking with the same party this time around, with support bleeding to the Tories (21%), the NDP (13%), and the Greens (6%).
Harper Gains, Rivals Stagnant
As the third week of the federal campaign draws to a close, the approval rating for Conservative leader and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has improved to 36 per cent, up four points in a week, while his momentum score is -18 (12% of respondents say their opinion of Harper has improved, while 30% say it has worsened).
The approval rating for Liberal Party leader Stéphane Dion remains low (from 13% last week to 12% today). The opposition leader also posted a negative momentum score (-20).
NDP leader Jack Layton also dropped one point (33%), but kept a positive momentum score (+2). In Quebec, Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe has a 33 per cent approval rating, and a -6 momentum score. Green Party leader Elizabeth May still holds a positive momentum score (+2), and her approval rating improved to 29 per cent (+1).
In the preferred prime minister question, Harper remains ahead of his rivals with 33 per cent (+1), followed by Layton with 18 per cent (-1), Dion with nine per cent, Duceppe with three per cent, and May with two per cent.
Harper continues to gets better numbers than his two main rivals in most qualities and characteristics. At least two-in-five respondents think of Harper as a strong and decisive leader (48%), who has a vision for Canada’s future (48%), understands complex issues (43%), and who can manage the economy effectively (41%).
More than half of respondents (52%) believe Dion cares about the environment, but—for the third week in a row—the Liberal leader cannot clear the 40 per cent mark in any of the remaining questions. Layton's numbers have stabilized, with 53 per cent of Canadians regarding him as an environmentalist, and more than two-in-five claiming he has a vision for Canada's future, understands the problems of Canadians, and is honest and trustworthy.
The main federal leaders continue to post low numbers on three specific areas. Roughly one-in-four Canadians (27%, +3) believe Harper cares about the environment, even fewer (16%, -2) regard Layton as a person who can manage the economy effectively, and less than one-in-ten (9%, -1) perceive Dion as a strong and decisive leader.
The proportion of Canadians who believe the Tories deserve a majority in the House of Commons remains stable at 27 per cent (-1), while 34 per cent (-4) think they do not deserve to form a government after this year’s election. Roughly one-in-five (21%) would be content with a Conservative minority.
In all, 32 per cent of respondents think Canada is on the right track.