Angus Reid Makes History with 2008 Federal Election Prediction
[VANCOUVER – Oct. 15, 2008] - Angus Reid, the only public opinion firm to exclusively use online methods to follow the views of the electorate during this year's federal campaign, offered the most accurate prediction of the results of Canada's 40th election.
Building on the success of its coverage of five recent provincial elections in Canada, Angus Reid accurately predicted a double-digit gap between the winning Conservative Party and the opposition Liberal Party, steady support for the Bloc Québécois, and slight increases for both the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Green Party, all within the advertised margin of sampling error.
Angus Reid's final national prediction—which included interviews carried out on the last day of the electoral campaign—and the national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults conducted for the Toronto Star before the closing weekend both show variations of less than two percentage points from the actual result for each of the five contending parties. The surveys pegged support for the Tories at 37 per cent and 38 per cent respectively, in tune with the 37.6 per cent the party garnered on election night.
The final Angus Reid breakdowns for Canada's three most populous provinces—Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia—were also particularly close to the actual outcome, showing variations of three percentage points or less from the actual results, even with a smaller sample to draw from. The surveys accurately predicted a first place showing for the Conservatives in Ontario, a close race for second place between Grits and Tories in Quebec, and the Liberals dropping to third place in BC.
“We have invested millions of dollars in building an online panel of Canadians—the Angus Reid Forum—which once again has proven to be the best platform for opinion research in Canada,” said company founder and CEO Dr. Angus Reid. “This experience, coupled with that of our online polling colleagues in Europe, once again serves to illustrate the superiority of our methodology. We continue to question the long term viability of telephone polling.”
In this campaign, Angus Reid partnered with some of Canada's most authoritative media outlets to provide Canadians with a clear analysis of the electorate. "We're always pleased when, in hindsight, our own polls turn out to be neatly aligned with reality," said Fred Kuntz, Editor-in-Chief of the Toronto Star. "It gives us confidence that our polls are worthwhile, that they help to illuminate truly what Canadians are thinking."
"The polling results were right on the money," said John Cassaday, President and CEO of Corus Entertainment Inc.
Throughout the course of the federal campaign, Angus Reid issued 45 different releases, focusing not only on horse race numbers, but also on the opinions of Canadians on the issues that defined the race, such as the original decision to exclude the Green Party from the televised debates, the economic situation in Canada and abroad, "strategic voting", and leadership qualities.
Angus Reid has been at the forefront of a revolution in market research, using its premier online survey platform—the Angus Reid Forum—to present respondents with highly visual, interactive, and engaging surveys, and ensuring that Canadians provide thoughtful and reliable responses. With an emphasis on quickness that cannot be matched by telephone-based research, Angus Reid has succeeded in providing an accurate appraisal of the views of Canadians.
Angus Reid is a full-service polling and market research firm which is a leader in the use of the Internet and rich media technology to collect high-quality, in-depth insights for a wide array of clients. Dr. Angus Reid and the Angus Reid team are pioneers in online research methodologies, and have been conducting online surveys since 1995.
Angus Reid, along with its sister company, Vision Critical, is now the largest Canadian-owned market research enterprise. In addition to its five offices in Canada—located in Vancouver, Calgary, Regina, Toronto, and Montreal—the firm also has offices in San Francisco, Chicago, New York, London, Paris and Sydney. Its team of specialists provides solutions across every type and sector of research, and currently serves over 200 international clients.
Angus Reid will launch its new United States voter panel—Springboard America—in November.
CALGARY - Tim Olafson, Executive Vice President, Public Affairs, 403-543-1088, tim.olafson@angus-reid.com
MONTREAL - Patrick Klein, Senior Vice President, Public Affairs, 514-989-3712, patrick.klein@angus-reid.com
VANCOUVER - Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs, 604-647-3570, mario.canseco@angus-reid.com
TORONTO - Lucas Marshall, Senior Research Manager, Public Affairs, 416-644-4042, lucas.marshall@angus-reid.com